The scores are in: top 10 property forecasts for 2016

The scores are in - we have asked 20 senior agents and analysts for their forecasts for capital values the 2016 housing market.

Most predict calm waters but with some hiccups if there are interest rate rises and if stamp duty damages the buy to let and holiday home markets.

Countrywide

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 4.0%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 6.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 4.5% 

Lookout in 2016 for: If moving or investing in property, do the sums properly to provide a cushion for risks including rate rises, taxes and lending restrictions.

Savills

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 6.5%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 6.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 5.0% 

Lookout in 2016 for: Interest rate rises squeezing affordability, and more mortgage regulations constraining the numbers of people moving.

JLL

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 4.0%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 6.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 5.0%

Lookout in 2016 for: The government must make its mark by empowering the housing industry to deliver more new homes.

Strutt & Parker

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 5.0%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 5.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 5.0% again

Lookout in 2016 for: Interest rate changes will slow curb the wider market, but additional homes stamp duty may have greater effect on the few who encounter them.

Knight Frank

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 3.5%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 4.2%

Current prediction for 2016: up 4.1% 

Lookout in 2016 for: More buyers and possibly higher prices in regional city centre, plus more volatility in buy-to-let activity as stamp duty rules kick in. 

Carter Jonas

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 5.0% to 7.0%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 5.0% to 6.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 3.4% 

Lookout in 2016 for: Areas with strong jobs prospects and close to good transport links will perform best, especially for investor-buyers.

Capital Economics

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 5.0%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 5.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 2.0% 

Lookout in 2016 for: A shortage of housing could push prices up further but they are already high and upcoming interest rates should moderate further growth.

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 5.0%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 5.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 4.5% 

Lookout in 2016 for: Lack of homes on the market and too few new homes being built will keep prices rising next year and beyond. 

BNP Paribas

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 6.1%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 6.0%

Current prediction for 2016: up 4.4% to 6.7% 

Lookout in 2016 for: Too few homes remains the central problem but interest rate rises or new mortgage constraints - or both - will dampen demand.

Halifax

Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 3.0% to 5.0%

Most recent prediction for 2015: up 9.7%

Current prediction for 2016: up 4.0% 

Lookout in 2016 for: Interest rate rises will be gradual but they will put the brakes on price rises, despite weaker-than-expected supply of new homes.