Seasonal trends return to lettings market after ‘unusual’ recent years

The chief executive of Propertymark says seasonal trends are returning to the housing market after several ‘unusual’ years.

Nathan Emerson says: “In the residential sales sector, seasonal trends are undoubtedly weighing on market performance. However, there are also strong indications that the market is cooling in general. Demand, as measured by new buyer registrations, is trending downwards and though offset by a reduction in existing stock levels and new supply, price pressures are increasing. This is evidenced by the majority of members reporting that properties continue to sell for less than asking price.

“In the lettings sector, supply and demand remain relatively static, but imbalanced with the equivalent of nine new applicants registered for each available property … Although rents continue to rise in key segments, around a quarter of our members reported rent falls in November (up from 14 per cent in October and four per cent in September) pointing to a market correction in motion.”

Propertymark agents report that the number of new prospective tenants registered per member branch remained static in November, the latest data available.

The seasonal trend indicates that this is relatively typical for this time of year and the agents say that a three-year comparison reveals that there is little difference in tenant demand levels between November 2021, 2022 and 2023.

Propertymark says: “The rental price correction continues with fewer members reporting seeing rents rise in their branches during November than in either October or September. Conversely, more saw rents falling in their branches during November than in October and September. We expect this trend to continue in the short to mid-term.” 

Toby Marlin, ARLA’s west country executive member, says: “Christmas came to the rental market early in November, with supply and demand dropping considerably earlier than usual. It feels like tenants have pulled up the drawbridge on 2023, and are holding off on their home moves until the new year, with property supply dropping at just the same rate. Whilst this seasonal lull is to be expected, it would not usually kick in until December. I am sure this is due to tenants tightening their belts and avoiding moving home where possible, at a time of year when other costs take precedence.” 

On the sales side, the average number of new prospective buyers registered per branch continued to decline last month. The number of registrations reduced from 53 in October to 49 in November. Whilst exacerbated by seasonal factors, a downward trend has been evident for some time.

The number of sales agreed per member branch decreased again in November 2023. Whilst seasonal patterns explain this trend, the year-to-date performance in 2023 was lower than in either 2021 or 2022.